Highest temperature in NYC on August 6?

Platform comparison

Market context

LaGuardia’s hottest reading on 6 August is the underlying event, and the market is trading as though a very hot outcome is highly unlikely: the crowd-implied **0% YES** leaves the favourite firmly on the low-temperature bands, with the consensus clustering around **88–91°F** rather than a breakout into the mid-90s.[1][10] That makes anything above 92°F the underdog side of the book, while the value question is whether the market is underpricing a one-off spike if the city gets full sun and weaker sea-breeze influence during the peak afternoon window.

Historically, early-August New York highs are often in the upper 80s to low 90s, which fits the current favourite zone and explains why the market is not leaning into an extreme-hot outcome.[2][15] Recent history also shows the city can overshoot that range during heat waves, with reporting on 6 August warning of temperatures “into the 90s” and heat index values around 100–104°F, even if actual highs were expected to peak in the upper 80s and lower 90s.[10] On that framing, the favourite is the broad 88–91°F band, while the contrarian angle is a sharper-than-forecast afternoon burst that would push the result into 92°F-plus.

For traders, the main catalysts are the day-of forecast updates, any National Weather Service heat advisory changes, and whether the marine layer or thunderstorms trim the afternoon high at LaGuardia versus central Manhattan.[10][14] The market settles on the highest observed temperature at the airport station, so timing matters: a late-day surge can matter more than the morning tone, and airport microclimate can diverge from city-centre reading. AccuWeather’s August outlook shows New York sitting in a warm pattern around the upper 80s on 6 August, which supports the consensus but still leaves a tail risk of a one-day overshoot if conditions briefly turn more stagnant.[2]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in NYC on August 6? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Who Will Win 2026, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Who Will Win 2026 trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.