Highest temperature in NYC on July 28?

Platform comparison

Market context

LaGuardia Airport's temperature reading on 28 July 2026 will determine which range captures the day's high in New York City. The settlement window closes at midday, meaning the final recorded temperature at the National Weather Service station will be the operative figure, regardless of any subsequent afternoon or evening fluctuations.

Historical July temperatures at LaGuardia cluster around 82–88°F for daily highs, with occasional spikes into the low 90s during heat waves. The record high for any July day at the airport stands at 104°F, set in 1999. The crowd's 0% probability on this market suggests either extreme confidence in a narrow range or insufficient liquidity to establish meaningful odds. Given that July 2026 forecasting remains speculative at this distance, the consensus appears to be pricing out tail outcomes rather than reflecting genuine meteorological assessment. Comparable years show that New York experiences heat waves roughly once per July season, making sub-80°F or above-95°F outcomes less common but hardly impossible.

Traders should monitor seasonal climate patterns emerging in spring 2026 and any Atlantic hurricane activity that might influence upper-air dynamics by late July. The National Weather Service's extended outlooks, typically issued 8–14 days ahead, will provide the most actionable signal closer to the settlement date. Urban heat island effects at LaGuardia—a densely developed airport surrounded by concrete and tarmac—can push readings 2–3°F higher than surrounding areas, a factor worth isolating when evaluating range boundaries.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Who Will Win 2026. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.