Highest temperature in Seoul on May 31?

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Market context

The highest temperature recorded at Incheon International Airport on 31 May 2026 will fall within one of several defined ranges, with the crowd currently assigning zero probability to any outcome. This represents an unusual positioning for a straightforward meteorological event in late spring on the Korean peninsula, where May typically sees warming trends as the region transitions toward summer monsoon season.

Seoul's late-May climate is well-documented through decades of records. Historical data from Incheon shows May 31st temperatures typically range between 22–28°C, with extremes occasionally reaching into the low 30s during unusually warm years. The 0% crowd probability suggests either extreme uncertainty about which specific temperature band will resolve, or insufficient trader participation to establish meaningful odds. Given that May 31st falls within Seoul's late spring window—after spring rain patterns but before peak summer heat—the distribution of outcomes should cluster around the seasonal norm rather than at temperature extremes.

Traders monitoring this market should track the Korean Meteorological Administration's seasonal forecasts and any emerging weather patterns in late May 2026. El Niño or La Niña conditions developing through early 2026 could influence whether the peninsula experiences above or below-average warmth. The settlement mechanism relies on Wunderground's historical data from Incheon International Airport, which provides reliable hourly observations. The absence of crowd conviction here likely reflects the inherent difficulty in pinpointing exact temperature ranges months in advance, rather than any data quality concerns.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Who Will Win 2026, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Who Will Win 2026 triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.