Highest temperature in Shanghai on July 16?

Platform comparison

Market context

Shanghai faces a wet start to 16 July 2026, with rain expected at Pudong International Airport and a 90% probability of precipitation, suppressing any chance of extreme heat today [1][2]. The market currently assigns a 0% probability to the YES outcome, implying the crowd believes the highest temperature will fall outside the implied range, likely due to the active shower forecast and thunderstorm activity reducing solar heating [2][4].

Historical mid-July patterns in Shanghai typically see highs near 36–39°C under clear skies, but the presence of scattered showers and broken clouds at 800ft today aligns with cooler maximums around 30–36°C, as seen in current forecasts [1][4]. The July 15 market already settled at 39°C with 100% confidence, suggesting a sharp drop if cloud cover and rain persist on 16 July, making the current 0% implied probability a rational reflection of the wet conditions rather than an underpriced contrarian angle [5].

Traders should monitor real-time updates from Wunderground for the official daily maximum, as the settlement source relies exclusively on recorded data from the Pudong station [1]. With medium predictability in the forecast and wind at 8kt from the south, any sudden clearing could shift temperatures upward, but the immediate outlook favours cooler, rain-affected conditions that keep the day’s peak well below extreme thresholds [3][4].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Shanghai on July 16? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Who Will Win 2026, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Who Will Win 2026. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Who Will Win 2026 trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.