Highest temperature in Shenzhen on May 31?

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Market context

On 31 May 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport will fall into one of several defined ranges. The settlement hinges on data from Wunderground's historical weather records for that specific station and date. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either uncertain about the range options available or have not yet engaged with this market in meaningful volume.

Shenzhen's late May climate sits firmly within the pre-monsoon transition period. Historical data from the airport station shows May highs typically range between 28°C and 34°C, with occasional peaks above 35°C during heat waves. The 31st falls near month's end when thermal accumulation is greatest but before the onset of the summer monsoon brings cloud cover and precipitation. Comparable years reveal that extreme heat (above 36°C) occurs roughly once every three to four years in late May, whilst readings below 28°C are rare and usually tied to unusual weather systems or measurement anomalies.

The primary variable affecting the outcome is the positioning of the Pacific subtropical high-pressure system and any early monsoon moisture incursion. Traders should monitor late-May weather forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration and regional pressure patterns in the two weeks preceding settlement. The absence of scheduled major weather events or typhoons in historical May records means the market will likely resolve based on seasonal norms unless an unusual system develops. Current 0% pricing across all ranges suggests the market awaits clearer consensus on which temperature band represents the most probable outcome.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Who Will Win 2026 is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.