Highest temperature in Toronto on June 25?

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Market context

Toronto Pearson International Airport is set to record its highest temperature for 25 June 2026, a real-world event that directly determines the market outcome. Historical data frames this probability sharply: June in Toronto typically sees highs between 19°C and 24°C, with extreme spikes above 34°C being rare outliers. Recent records show a streak of three consecutive days with temperatures ≥34°C ending abruptly on 25 June when the maximum dropped to 30.0°C, suggesting volatility rather than sustained heatwaves[3]. Environment Canada’s average high for June is 25°C, but the 0% crowd-implied probability for the current market implies traders expect a significant deviation from the norm, likely clustering around the 19°C frontrunner seen on Polymarket rather than the hotter ranges[1][5].

The primary catalyst for traders is Environment Canada’s daily forecast, which acts as the main dependency for temperature outcomes. For the preceding day, 24 June, the agency predicted sunny skies with a 25°C high, driving market odds toward 24–26°C[2]. Traders must monitor the latest 25 June forecast release, as any shift from sunny to cloudy conditions or a drop in predicted highs could validate the contrarian 19°C value spot. Recent news highlights a record-breaking 35.8°C heat event at Pearson Airport, yet such extremes are infrequent[4]. With the consensus heavily favouring the 19°C outcome at 36%, the value may lie in the 20°C range at 28%, offering a balanced position against the 0% implied probability for higher ranges[1]. The settlement window closing on 25 June 2026 at 12:00 UTC ensures the final data point from Wunderground will resolve the market definitively.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Who Will Win 2026, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Who Will Win 2026, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Who Will Win 2026 is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Who Will Win 2026 triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.