Netanyahu out by 2027?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Benjamin Netanyahu's tenure as Prime Minister faces uncertainty through end-2026, with the crowd pricing a 44% chance he announces resignation or is removed by that date. The Israeli political system has seen three prime ministers depart since 2009—Ehud Olmert (2008, corruption charges), Benjamin Netanyahu himself (2021, after 12 years), and Naftali Bennett (2022, coalition collapse)—suggesting leadership transitions occur within 3-4 year windows when legal or coalition pressures mount. Netanyahu's previous exit followed electoral defeat and coalition fragmentation; his current position rests on a narrow right-wing coalition dependent on far-right parties with conflicting demands. Historical precedent suggests 44% underprices the structural fragility of Israeli coalitions, though Netanyahu's personal political durability and control of Likud's machinery provides countervailing ballast.

The critical catalysts centre on three overlapping timelines. Netanyahu's ongoing trial on corruption charges (bribery, fraud, breach of trust) continues through 2026, with verdicts potentially arriving mid-year; conviction would intensify pressure but wouldn't automatically force resignation under Israeli law. Coalition stability depends on maintaining the support of Itamar Ben-Gvir's National Security Ministry and Bezalel Smotrich's Finance Ministry—both have threatened withdrawal over specific policy disputes. International pressure, particularly from the US administration post-January 2025, could reshape domestic political calculations. The market's 44% probability reflects genuine uncertainty about whether legal jeopardy, coalition arithmetic, or external pressure will crystallise into an announcement within 24 months.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.