US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?

Platform comparison

Market context

The market is pricing **0% YES**, which makes the current line a heavy favourite on **No** and leaves any positive outcome as an extreme contrarian angle. The reason is straightforward: the June 2026 US-Iran instrument described in reporting was a **framework or memorandum of understanding**, not a final nuclear deal, and even sympathetic coverage said the text was still to be finalised and then turned into more detailed negotiations.[11][15][16]

Historically, these talks have tended to produce **process** rather than closure. In February and late June, multiple rounds were described as “good progress” or “significant progress”, but the same reports stressed unresolved gaps on enrichment, sanctions relief and verification, with further technical meetings pushed into Vienna or over the following weeks.[3][4][5][9][10] That pattern favours the market’s scepticism: a roadmap can exist without the qualifying written instrument being mutually signed or adopted by the deadline, so the consensus case is still that the market settles **No** unless there is an explicit, formalised document rather than another interim statement.[1][14]

For traders, the key catalysts are any new **written** signings, a formally adopted annex, or a published communiqué that clearly upgrades the June framework into a final instrument; softer headlines about “progress” are not enough on their own.[1][7][11] Watch for confirmation from the US side, Iranian foreign ministry statements, and mediator updates from Qatar, Pakistan or Oman, because the reporting on earlier rounds showed that diplomatic optimism can run ahead of actual text.[1][4][15] The value spot, if any, sits in the small chance that a last-minute legal formality is disclosed before 31 August, but absent that, the underdog remains the broader final-deal thesis.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Who Will Win 2026. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Who Will Win 2026 trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.