Highest temperature in Amsterdam on July 16?

Platform comparison

Market context

Amsterdam Airport Schiphol is currently experiencing a cool, cloudy evening with no record of extreme heat today, meaning the market for a specific high-temperature range on 16 July 2026 has already settled at zero probability for the favoured outcome. The crowd-implied probability sits at 0% YES, reflecting the consensus that the day’s peak temperature has already been recorded and failed to breach the threshold in question. Historical data for mid-July in the Netherlands typically shows highs between 20°C and 25°C, with extreme spikes above 30°C occurring only during rare heatwaves, such as those in 2019 and 2022, which makes a contrarian bet on higher ranges statistically unattractive given the current atmospheric conditions [1].

Traders should monitor the official Wunderground daily archive for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, which serves as the definitive resolution source, to confirm the final recorded figure before the settlement window closes at 12:00:00Z on 16 July 2026. While no new weather announcements are expected for a day that has already passed, the dependency on this specific dataset means any discrepancy between local station readings and the Wunderground history could theoretically alter the outcome, though such anomalies are unlikely in established meteorological records. The value spot here is effectively non-existent for the YES side, as the event has concluded without the requisite heat, leaving the market firmly in the NO territory with no catalysts to shift the probability.

Sources: 1

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Who Will Win 2026, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Who Will Win 2026. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.