Highest temperature in Beijing on August 17?

Platform comparison

Market context

Beijing's highest temperature on 17 August 2026 will be recorded at the Capital International Airport Station and resolved against Weather Underground's Daily Observations table. The current crowd probability of 0% suggests traders are either uncertain about which temperature bracket will resolve or are waiting for more specificity on the exact range thresholds. August is Beijing's hottest month, with historical highs regularly exceeding 35°C; the question hinges on whether conditions will push into particular temperature bands rather than whether heat will arrive.

Historical August data from Beijing shows consistent patterns: the city has recorded temperatures above 37°C on roughly 40% of August days over the past two decades, with extreme heat waves occasionally pushing toward 40°C. The 0% implied probability likely reflects ambiguity around the market's specific temperature brackets rather than genuine uncertainty about whether measurable heat will occur. Traders should clarify the exact range definitions before positioning, as the difference between a 35–36°C day and a 37–38°C day determines outcomes entirely.

Monitoring China's meteorological forecasts and any published range specifications for this market remains essential. The China Meteorological Administration typically issues August outlooks by late July 2026. Atmospheric patterns in mid-August depend on positioning of the Pacific subtropical high-pressure system; years with stronger ridging tend toward higher maxima. The resolution mechanism's reliance on Weather Underground's Daily Observations table rather than summary figures introduces a technical dependency worth confirming before settlement approaches.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Beijing on August 17? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Who Will Win 2026, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.