Highest temperature in Beijing on May 25?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Beijing's highest temperature on 25 May 2026 will be recorded at the Capital International Airport Station and settled against historical weather data. The settlement window closes at midday UTC on that date, capturing the full diurnal cycle. The 0% crowd probability suggests either extreme confidence in a specific temperature band or minimal trading activity; neither interpretation should be taken at face value without examining seasonal norms.

May temperatures at Beijing's airport station typically range between 25–32°C, with the historical median high around 28–29°C for this date. Over the past two decades, readings have occasionally spiked above 33°C during early heat waves, though such extremes occur in roughly one year in five. The absence of trading volume or consensus clustering at any particular range indicates the market has not yet attracted sufficient participation to establish reliable pricing. This creates potential value for traders with access to seasonal forecasting models or historical volatility patterns specific to late May in northern China.

The relevant catalyst is the China Meteorological Administration's medium-range forecast, typically issued 7–10 days before the settlement date. Late May sits at the cusp of Beijing's transition into summer, when subtropical air masses occasionally push northward ahead of the monsoon season. Recent years have shown increasing variability in spring temperature extremes across northern China, though no structural shift in May averages has been documented. Traders should monitor whether any unusual atmospheric patterns develop in the weeks preceding the market's close.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Beijing on May 25? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.