Highest temperature in Chengdu on August 18?

Platform comparison

Market context

The market is pricing zero probability that Chengdu will record a temperature at or above a specific threshold on 18 August 2026, based on the highest reading captured in Weather Underground's Daily Observations table at Shuangliu International Airport. The settlement window closes at midday UTC on that date, meaning the resolution hinges on morning and early-afternoon temperatures rather than the full diurnal cycle.

Chengdu's August climate presents a consistent pattern. The city sits in the Sichuan Basin at 500 metres elevation, where summer temperatures regularly exceed 35°C during the peak heating season. Historical August data from Shuangliu shows that daily highs typically range between 32–37°C, with occasional spikes above 38°C during heat waves. The zero-probability pricing suggests the market has settled on an unusually high threshold—one that falls outside normal August extremes for the region. Without access to the specific temperature bands offered, the consensus appears to be dismissing even outlier scenarios.

Traders should monitor seasonal forecasts released by China's National Meteorological Centre in the weeks preceding mid-August 2026, as these often signal whether anomalous heat patterns are expected. The resolution methodology's reliance on Weather Underground's Daily Observations rather than summary figures introduces a technical dependency; discrepancies between the two sources have historically occurred during rapid temperature fluctuations. Any significant atmospheric pattern shift—such as a sustained high-pressure system over central China—could alter the probability calculus substantially, though current consensus reflects confidence in typical August behaviour.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Who Will Win 2026, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Who Will Win 2026. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Who Will Win 2026 trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.