Highest temperature in Chengdu on August 6?

Platform comparison

Market context

Chengdu’s airport high on 6 August is shaping up as a **favourite for the warmer brackets**, because the city’s August climatology sits in the mid-to-high 20s Celsius with daytime highs often near 30°C, while recent city forecasts have still pointed to roughly 33–35°C in the area and a rainy, humid setup rather than a cool spell.[1][5][8][16] With the market currently implying **0% for YES**, the consensus looks heavily biased towards an extreme under, but that leaves a clear contrarian angle if the day turns into one of Chengdu’s hotter, sunnier windows rather than a rain-cooled session.[1][5][20]

Historically, Chengdu in August is a **heat-and-humidity market**, not a low-temperature market: average highs are around 29–30°C, with some sources placing typical August ranges near 24–34°C and occasional peaks reaching the upper 30s on very hot days.[1][9][16][20] That means any settlement band covering the low or mid-30s should be treated as the structural favourite, while the current zero-implied pricing looks more like an overreaction to the city’s rainy-season reputation than a tight read on the actual daily high.[1][5][20] The value, if any, is usually on the **higher side of the range distribution**, not the cold tail.

The main catalysts are straightforward but weather-sensitive: the overnight-to-morning forecast for Chengdu, the timing and persistence of rain bands, and whether cloud cover or thunderstorms cap the afternoon peak before the 12:00 UTC settlement window closes.[1][8][19] As of the latest city forecast, Chengdu was listed at **21–35°C with rain**, which still leaves room for a mid-30s outcome if clearing develops after morning showers.[8] Traders should also watch any short-term forecast updates from major weather outlets, because in a city where humidity and rainfall are high, small changes in cloud cover can materially alter the day’s maximum temperature.[5][13][19]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Chengdu on August 6? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Who Will Win 2026 trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.