Highest temperature in Chengdu on July 20?

Platform comparison

Market context

Chengdu’s July heat is notorious, with the city routinely experiencing temperatures exceeding 35°C during mid-summer. The market asks whether the highest temperature recorded at Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport on 20 July 2026 will fall into a specific range, yet the crowd-implied probability for the YES outcome sits at 0%. This suggests traders believe the event is impossible, likely because the defined range is implausibly low or misaligned with historical norms for the region.

Historical data shows Chengdu’s July highs typically range between 33°C and 37°C, with extremes occasionally reaching 39°C during intense heatwaves. Comparable cases from recent years, including 2022 and 2023, confirm that temperatures below 30°C on 20 July are virtually unheard of. The 0% probability implies the market may be mispriced if the YES range includes plausible values like 34–36°C, offering a potential contrarian angle where consensus has overcorrected.

Traders should monitor the daily weather forecast from Wunderground for Chengdu Shuangliu, as real-time temperature readings will determine settlement. Recent forecasts for mid-July 2026 indicate continued high heat and humidity, with no significant cooling systems or monsoon shifts expected to disrupt the pattern [1]. The key catalyst is the official daily maximum temperature posted on 20 July, which will resolve the market definitively.

Sources: 1

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Who Will Win 2026, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Who Will Win 2026 trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.