Highest temperature in Chongqing on August 11?

Platform comparison

Market context

The market is pricing the highest temperature recorded at Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport on 11 August 2026 at 0% probability for the top temperature band, suggesting the crowd expects a relatively moderate day by the city's standards. Chongqing sits in the Yangtze River valley and ranks amongst China's hottest cities during summer, with August typically bringing sustained heat and humidity. The settlement hinges on the Daily Observations table from Weather Underground rather than summary figures, a distinction that occasionally produces different readings from headline temperature reports.

August in Chongqing historically produces daily highs consistently above 35°C, with many years recording peaks between 37–40°C. The 0% implied probability on the top band suggests either the market is anchored to a specific threshold well above historical norms, or traders are underweighting the likelihood of an extreme reading. Comparable August days at the airport station have frequently exceeded 38°C; the crowd's complete dismissal of elevated outcomes warrants scrutiny against seasonal precedent.

The resolution depends entirely on Weather Underground's Jiangbei station data, which can occasionally diverge from other monitoring points across the city. Traders should monitor late-July and early-August weather patterns in 2026 for any unusual atmospheric conditions—notably, whether monsoon activity or heat dome formation develops across central China. The specific reliance on one airport station's observations creates a narrow resolution pathway that eliminates ambiguity but concentrates risk on a single data source's recording.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Who Will Win 2026. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Who Will Win 2026 trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.