Highest temperature in Guangzhou on August 17?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 17 August 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport will determine this market's outcome. The crowd currently assigns zero probability to any specific temperature range resolving YES, suggesting either extreme uncertainty about which bracket will validate or a technical artefact in how the market has been framed. Resolution hinges on the Daily Observations table from Weather Underground rather than summary figures, a distinction that occasionally produces material differences in recorded extremes.

Guangzhou's August climate is remarkably consistent. Historical data shows daily highs cluster between 32–35°C during mid-August, with the city's subtropical monsoon pattern delivering afternoon thunderstorms that occasionally suppress peaks. The 0% implied probability reflects the market's structure rather than meteorological implausibility—every temperature range cannot simultaneously carry zero odds. Comparable August readings from prior years establish that 33–34°C represents the modal outcome, whilst readings above 36°C or below 31°C occur infrequently but remain plausible under specific atmospheric conditions.

Traders should monitor tropical cyclone activity across the South China Sea in early-to-mid August 2026, as any system tracking towards Guangzhou could trigger cloud cover and precipitation that would depress afternoon temperatures. The China Meteorological Administration's seasonal forecasts, typically released in late July, will provide directional guidance on whether August 2026 tracks warmer or cooler than the thirty-year normal. Airport station readings occasionally diverge from city-centre observations due to local surface characteristics, making the specific measurement location material to outcome probability.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Guangzhou on August 17? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Who Will Win 2026, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Who Will Win 2026. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Who Will Win 2026 trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.