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Highest temperature in Guangzhou on July 7?

Comparison of odds and platforms for "Highest temperature in Guangzhou on July 7?" — sourced live from the Polymarket order book, curated by Who Will Win 2026.

31°C 95% 32°C 7% 33°C 1% 25°C or below 0% Volume: $102K Liquidity: $130K Closes: 7 Jul 2026
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Highest temperature in Guangzhou on July 7?

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via Who Will Win 2026) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
 95% 5% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle See live odds →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
 95% 5% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain See live odds →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
 — — Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD See live odds →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
 — — 2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR See live odds →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
 — — Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) See live odds →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
31°C95%
32°C7%
33°C1%
25°C or below0%
26°C0%
27°C0%
28°C0%
29°C0%
30°C0%
34°C0%
35°C or higher0%

Market context

Live Polymarket data shows 95% YES probability for Highest temperature in Guangzhou on July 7?. This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Jul '26. The resolution …

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Who Will Win 2026, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?
Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
How does resolution work?
Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
What does Polymarket cost to trade?
Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
Do I need to KYC for this market?
On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Who Will Win 2026 trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
How reliable are the quoted odds?
The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
Jordan LeeJordan LeeSports Prediction ReporterandChris ReedChris ReedPolitical Forecasting Editor

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