Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 14?

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Market context

The Hong Kong Observatory will record the highest temperature in Hong Kong on 14 July 2026, measured to one decimal place in degrees Celsius. The market currently shows 0% implied probability across all temperature ranges, suggesting either a data-loading issue or that traders have not yet engaged with this specific date forecast.

Hong Kong's July temperatures are among the year's most predictable. Historical data from the Observatory shows July daily maxima cluster tightly between 32–34°C, with extremes rarely exceeding 35°C or falling below 31°C. The 30-year average daily maximum for mid-July sits around 32.5°C. Anomalous heat events—temperatures above 36°C—occur in fewer than 5% of July days across the historical record. The consistency of monsoon patterns during this period means that forecasting the likely range is primarily a matter of reading established seasonal norms rather than anticipating rare meteorological disruptions.

Traders should monitor the Hong Kong Observatory's seasonal outlook, typically issued in June, which flags whether the coming month is expected to run warmer or cooler than the 30-year mean. The settlement window closes at midday on 14 July 2026, giving the Observatory time to finalise its daily extract. Any tropical cyclone activity in the South China Sea during early-to-mid July could suppress temperatures through cloud cover and rainfall, though such systems are tracked weeks in advance. The absence of current market activity suggests this contract may be awaiting initial liquidity; once traders begin positioning, the consensus will likely converge on the 32–34°C band where historical frequency is highest.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Who Will Win 2026, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

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FAQ

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