Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 18?

Platform comparison

Market context

The Hong Kong Observatory will record the single highest temperature on 18 July 2026, measured in degrees Celsius to one decimal place. This market resolves based on the official "Absolute Daily Max" figure published in the Observatory's Daily Extract once the date has passed and data finalised.

July represents the peak of Hong Kong's summer season, when daily maxima routinely exceed 32°C. Historical records show that mid-July temperatures in the territory typically range between 32 and 35°C, with occasional excursions above 36°C during particularly intense heat episodes. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders expect the market to settle within a specific temperature band rather than reflecting genuine uncertainty about whether a reading will occur—the Observatory records temperatures every day without exception. Comparable July dates from recent years provide the most reliable guide: the Observatory's climate database shows consistent patterns that narrow the plausible range considerably, making extreme outliers unlikely but not impossible depending on how the resolution brackets are structured.

The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 18 July 2026, though the market cannot resolve until the Observatory publishes its Daily Extract with confirmed data, typically occurring within days of the observation date. Traders should monitor Hong Kong's weather patterns in early July for signs of heat intensity—particularly whether a high-pressure system or tropical air mass dominates the region during that specific week. The Observatory's seasonal forecasts, updated monthly, will provide the most relevant forward guidance on atmospheric conditions likely to prevail.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Who Will Win 2026, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Who Will Win 2026 trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.