Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 11?

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Market context

The Hong Kong Observatory will record the highest temperature in degrees Celsius on 11 June 2026, with settlement contingent on publication of the daily maximum reading. The crowd currently assigns zero probability to any specific temperature range, indicating either insufficient liquidity or genuine uncertainty about which bracket will contain the eventual figure.

Hong Kong's June climate sits firmly within the pre-monsoon season, characterised by warm, humid conditions ahead of the southwest monsoon onset. Historical data from the Observatory shows June daily maxima typically range between 28°C and 33°C, with occasional excursions above 34°C during heat waves. The 2015 heatwave saw a 36.1°C reading on 23 June; more recently, June 2023 produced several days exceeding 33°C. The zero-probability consensus suggests traders are either waiting for seasonal forecasts or treating the market as illiquid rather than genuinely dismissing all temperature outcomes.

Catalysts for meaningful price movement will emerge as June 2026 approaches. The Hong Kong Observatory publishes seasonal outlooks typically two months in advance; a forecast for above-normal temperatures would shift expectations toward higher ranges. Real-time monitoring of the Pacific subtropical high-pressure system and any tropical cyclone activity in May–early June will influence whether the region experiences typical seasonal warmth or anomalous heat. The settlement window closes at midday on 11 June, allowing traders to incorporate morning weather observations before final resolution, though the Observatory's official daily extract may take several days to publish.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 11? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Who Will Win 2026, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Who Will Win 2026?

Zero. Who Will Win 2026 routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Who Will Win 2026 triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.