Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 13?

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Market context

The Hong Kong Observatory will record the highest temperature in Hong Kong on 13 June 2026, measured in degrees Celsius to one decimal place. This market resolves based on the absolute daily maximum temperature published in the Observatory's Daily Extract climate data, with settlement occurring once official figures are finalised.

Hong Kong's June temperatures typically range between 28°C and 34°C, though extremes occasionally breach 35°C during early-season heatwaves. Historical data from the Observatory shows that mid-June sits near the transition into the summer monsoon period, when thermal conditions intensify but before the most intense heat of July and August. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are avoiding commitment to any single temperature band, likely reflecting genuine uncertainty about which range will contain the day's peak rather than confidence in a particular outcome. This absence of conviction creates potential value for those willing to assess seasonal climatology and emerging weather patterns.

The key catalyst will be the monsoon onset timing and any anomalous pressure systems developing across the South China Sea in early June 2026. The Hong Kong Observatory publishes extended forecasts approximately two weeks in advance, with increasing precision as the date approaches. Traders should monitor the Observatory's monthly climate summaries and any official alerts regarding unusual heat episodes. The settlement window closes at midday on 13 June, meaning real-time weather data from the morning will be critical for final positioning, though the official maximum temperature won't be confirmed until the Daily Extract is published, typically within 24–48 hours of the observation date.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 13? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Who Will Win 2026, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Who Will Win 2026 is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.