Highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur on July 19?

Platform comparison

Market context

The market seeks the single highest temperature reading at Kuala Lumpur International Airport on 19 July 2026, with settlement determined by Wunderground's historical weather data for that specific station. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either absent or have collectively rejected all available temperature ranges as implausible outcomes—an unusual signal for a weather event with a defined settlement date less than two years away.

Kuala Lumpur's equatorial climate produces remarkably consistent daily maxima throughout the year. July falls within the southwest monsoon season, when afternoon temperatures at the airport typically peak between 32–34°C, with occasional readings reaching 35°C during drier spells. Historical volatility at this station is modest; extreme outliers above 36°C or below 30°C occur infrequently enough that they represent genuine tail-risk scenarios rather than baseline expectations. The 0% reading likely reflects either a technical glitch in market initialisation or the absence of traders willing to commit capital to ranges that appear statistically routine.

The settlement window closes at midday UTC on 19 July 2026, creating a timing mismatch with Kuala Lumpur's local afternoon peak temperatures, which typically occur between 14:00 and 16:00 local time (06:00–08:00 UTC). Traders should verify whether Wunderground's daily maximum captures the full 24-hour cycle or truncates at the settlement deadline. Monsoon intensity forecasts and any documented shifts in airport microclimates would merit monitoring, though such factors rarely produce dramatic departures from the 32–35°C range that characterises July weather at this location.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.