Highest temperature in Los Angeles on August 14?

Platform comparison

Market context

The market is pricing the peak temperature at Los Angeles International Airport on 14 August 2026 at 0% probability for any given range, suggesting the crowd expects either extreme heat or technical settlement issues. August in Los Angeles typically peaks between 75–85°F at the airport, though inland readings often exceed 95°F. The 0% implied probability across all ranges is unusual and likely reflects either low liquidity, confusion about the resolution mechanism, or traders awaiting clearer forecasts as the date approaches.

Historical August data from LAX shows the airport rarely records temperatures above 85°F due to marine influence, with the all-time August high at the station around 88°F. The 14th holds no particular meteorological significance within the month. Traders should note the distinction between airport readings and broader Los Angeles temperatures—the coastal location moderates extremes that inland areas experience. This geographic specificity is critical; a heatwave affecting the broader region may barely register at LAX.

The settlement window closes at midday on 14 August 2026, giving traders roughly 12 hours of actual temperature data before resolution. The National Weather Service and Weather Underground forecasts will become increasingly precise in the weeks prior. Any unusual atmospheric patterns—such as a heat dome or marine layer disruption—would shift expectations materially. Currently, the 0% reading suggests the market is either dormant or awaiting catalyst information; value hunters should monitor whether consensus clusters around typical August ranges (75–85°F) or adjusts for anomalous conditions as summer approaches.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Los Angeles on August 14? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Who Will Win 2026, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Who Will Win 2026. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.