Highest temperature in Manila on August 17?

Platform comparison

Market context

The market is pricing the probability of the highest temperature at Manila's Ninoy Aquino International Airport reaching a specific threshold on 17 August 2026 at zero per cent. This reflects the crowd's current consensus that the settlement range—which will be determined by the Daily Observations table on Weather Underground—sits below whatever upper bound the market has established for a YES resolution.

Manila's August climate is remarkably consistent. Historical data from the past two decades shows daily highs clustering between 29–33°C, with extreme readings above 35°C occurring in fewer than 5 per cent of August days. The 0% probability suggests the market has set the threshold well above typical August conditions, possibly at 36°C or higher. This positioning reflects a reasonable baseline: August is Manila's monsoon season, characterised by cloud cover and rainfall that typically suppress afternoon peaks compared to the drier months of April and May.

Traders should monitor the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) seasonal forecasts as August 2026 approaches, particularly any advisories regarding heat waves or anomalous weather patterns. The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phase in mid-2026 will be material; a strong El Niño could elevate baseline temperatures across the region. Real-time weather tracking in late July and early August will clarify whether atmospheric conditions are trending toward the extreme end of the distribution, though the zero-probability pricing suggests the market views such an outcome as sufficiently unlikely that value may exist only in contrarian positioning.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Who Will Win 2026, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Who Will Win 2026. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.