Highest temperature in Munich on July 24?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 24 July 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Munich Airport Station will fall into one of several defined ranges. The crowd currently assigns zero probability to the YES outcome, suggesting either extreme confidence in a specific temperature band or genuine uncertainty about which range will ultimately contain the day's peak.

Munich's summer temperatures have historically clustered in the 25–30°C range during late July, with occasional excursions above 32°C during heat waves. The city experienced a peak of 37.5°C in June 2022 and regularly sees days exceeding 30°C in midsummer. The zero probability assigned here likely reflects either a misalignment between market design and trader expectations, or consensus that the settlement range itself is implausible. Comparable European airports show July highs typically between 26–32°C, though extreme heat events have pushed readings into the mid-to-high 30s. Historical volatility suggests the favourite should occupy the 28–31°C band, with underdog status reserved for either cooler (sub-25°C) or hotter (above 33°C) outcomes.

Traders should monitor European weather forecasting through early July 2026, particularly any developing heat dome patterns across central Europe. The German meteorological service (Deutscher Wetterdienst) typically issues reliable extended forecasts by mid-month. Seasonal atmospheric patterns—including the North Atlantic Oscillation and Mediterranean pressure systems—will influence whether Munich experiences typical summer conditions or anomalous heat. The settlement window closes at noon UTC on the day itself, meaning real-time weather data becomes the decisive factor once the market enters its final hours.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Munich on July 24? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Who Will Win 2026. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.