Highest temperature in NYC on August 17?

Platform comparison

Market context

The crowd is pricing zero probability that the highest temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport on 17 August 2026 will fall into whichever range this market specifies, suggesting either extreme confidence in a cooler outcome or minimal trading activity. August temperatures at LaGuardia typically peak between 82–88°F, with historical records showing that mid-August heat waves do occur but remain relatively uncommon. The 0% implied probability indicates the market may be treating this as an unlikely tail outcome, though without knowing the specific temperature bracket being priced, the consensus positioning remains opaque.

New York's summer weather patterns show considerable year-to-year variation, but August 17th historically sits near the tail end of the warmest period. Climate data from the National Weather Service reveals that temperatures exceeding 90°F on this date occur roughly once every five to seven years, whilst readings above 95°F are substantially rarer. The current pricing suggests traders expect either a typical August day or cooler-than-average conditions, leaving potential value if atmospheric conditions develop favourably for heat accumulation in the weeks preceding the settlement date.

Traders should monitor seasonal forecasting updates from NOAA and the Climate Prediction Center as summer 2026 approaches, particularly any signals regarding Atlantic hurricane activity or heat dome formation patterns that could influence northeastern US temperatures. The resolution mechanism's reliance on Weather Underground's Daily Observations table rather than summary figures means precise station data will determine settlement, making familiarity with LaGuardia's specific measurement protocols relevant for traders evaluating edge.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Who Will Win 2026 trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.