Highest temperature in NYC on August 25?

Platform comparison

Market context

A reading of 0% YES implies the market is pricing in the lowest temperature band, so the favourite is a cooler outcome rather than a late heat spike. For a LaGuardia high on 25 August, the consensus sits near seasonal norms: AccuWeather’s monthly guide has August highs in New York around 75°F to 84°F, with late-month highs near 77°F to 79°F, while WeatherSpark shows typical August daily highs sliding from about 84°F to 80°F through the month.[3][15] That makes the underdog the hotter bands unless a genuine heat ridge builds over the city. With yesterday’s LaGuardia maximum at 84°F and a daily mean near 77°F in the NWS climate report, a high in the upper 70s to low 80s looks more in line with the baseline than an extreme print.[8]

The main catalyst is the actual NOAA hourly trace at KLGA, because the market settles on the highest value in the Temp column on 25 August, not a forecast high. Current NWS conditions at LaGuardia show a coolish early-day setup, with 68°F at 7:51 am EDT and 78.1°F by 8 pm EDT, which leans towards a middling final range rather than a blow-off top.[1][10] A trader should watch whether afternoon sunshine and any inland breeze allow the airport to edge above the high-70s, and whether the day stays dry enough for a steady climb; recent local coverage has pointed to a wetter-than-average August, but also to a drier stretch after mid-week storms, which can support a modest warming trend.[14] In handicapper terms, the fair price still looks anchored to the middle temperature buckets, while a contrarian bet on the top end needs a clear late-afternoon surge.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Who Will Win 2026. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Who Will Win 2026 trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.