Highest temperature in NYC on August 3?

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event is the highest temperature reached at LaGuardia Airport on 3 August 2026, and the market is pricing **0% YES** against that outcome being in the relevant range. With settlement tied to the Wunderground daily history page for KLGA, the key number is the day’s recorded maximum, not the forecast at any one point in time. The current crowd view leaves the favourite clearly elsewhere, so the market is effectively treating this as a longshot with little room for a hot-afternoon surprise.

Historically, New York City early-August highs often sit in the low-to-mid 80s Fahrenheit, which is why the consensus bands in comparable temperature markets usually cluster around the mid-80s rather than extreme heat. In the live Polymarket listing, the leading outcomes were **82–83°F at 35%** and **84–85°F at 33%**, with **80–81°F at 19%**, showing a fairly tight two-way race near the seasonal norm. That puts the present 0% YES view in underdog territory; the value question is whether traders are over- or underweighting a modestly warm day versus a more standard August high.

The main catalyst is the actual temperature path through the afternoon and whether cloud cover, showers, or storm outflow cap the daytime peak before settlement. CBS New York reported a storm threat for NYC, New Jersey and Connecticut on Monday 3 August 2026, with flash-flood risk in the area, which matters because convective weather can trim highs even when the broader setup is warm. For handicappers, the consensus sits around an 82–85°F finish, while the value spot is the contrarian case for a cooler cap if precipitation or lingering cloud cover arrives early enough to prevent a late-day push.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Who Will Win 2026, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Who Will Win 2026 trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.