Highest temperature in NYC on August 9?

Platform comparison

Market context

New York’s temperature outcome for 9 August is a **straight weather bet**, with the crowd currently treating the **90–91°F** band as the clear favourite and assigning it **100%** implied probability in the market. That leaves no visible spread in the price, so the practical question is not whether warmth is expected, but whether the final LaGuardia Airport reading lands inside that exact bucket or slips into a neighbouring range. [1]

For context, late-summer New York often sits in the upper 80s to low 90s, and the live conditions reported on the day were already near that zone: WeatherSpark’s latest KLGA report at 1:51 PM on 9 August showed **88.0°F**, with a 6-hour high of **89.1°F**. That makes the favourite look well supported on observed heat, but a 100% market also creates a contrarian angle: there is no premium left for those already positioned in the consensus band, so any overshoot above 91°F or a weaker-than-expected afternoon can matter disproportionately versus the quoted price. [3][1]

Traders should watch the official forecast discussions and local station observations rather than broad city summaries, because the market resolves on the **Daily Observations** table for **LaGuardia Airport Station**. The National Weather Service’s NYC climate products and forecast pages are the relevant dependency chain for comparing expectations against the actual airport observation, while any discrepancy between summary pages and the daily table should be ignored for settlement. [2][12]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in NYC on August 9? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Who Will Win 2026 trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.