Highest temperature in NYC on July 2?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 2 July 2026, LaGuardia Airport will record its peak temperature, a metric that defines this prediction market’s outcome. The crowd-implied probability sits at 0% for the “YES” outcome, suggesting the consensus believes the temperature will fall outside the specific range being traded, likely viewing it as an underdog scenario. This stark pricing contrasts with recent historical patterns where July 2 has frequently delivered extreme heat, including a record-breaking 100°F day in Central Park last year, the first such occurrence on this date since 1966[6].

Historical data frames the current probability as potentially mispriced, given that July 2026 at LaGuardia has already seen highs ranging from 81°F to 99°F, with a recent max of 92°F recorded on 1 July[5][8]. The market’s near-zero pricing ignores the strong precedent of heat waves stifling the region in early July, where temperatures routinely breach 90°F. A contrarian angle suggests value lies in betting against the consensus, as the implied probability fails to account for the volatility and upward temperature trends typical of this period.

Traders should monitor the National Weather Service updates for LaGuardia and any sudden shifts in humidity or wind patterns that could suppress the peak temperature[9]. While no specific announcements are pending, the dependency on Wunderground’s final daily report means real-time fluctuations at JFK, which already hit 100°F on 2 July, could signal similar conditions at LaGuardia[7]. The value spot remains in challenging the 0% implied probability, as the historical weight of heat waves and recent 92°F readings suggest the temperature range is more likely than the market admits.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in NYC on July 2? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Who Will Win 2026. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.