Highest temperature in NYC on July 20?

Platform comparison

Market context

New York City faces a mid-July heat check on 20 July 2026, with the market betting on whether LaGuardia Airport will record a temperature high enough to trigger a YES outcome. The crowd-implied probability sits at 0% YES, suggesting consensus expects the peak temperature to fall below the market’s threshold, likely in the 80s or low 90s Fahrenheit. Historically, 20 July has seen extremes ranging from 72°F to 106°F in NYC, with the 106°F record set in 1911 acting as the outlier that defines the upper tail [1]. Recent comparable cases, such as the 98°F peak in 2023 and 94°F in 2022, show that while heatwaves are common, breaking into the 100s on this specific date remains rare, framing the 0% probability as statistically grounded rather than purely contrarian.

Traders should monitor the National Weather Service’s 72-hour forecast for the Northeast, particularly any announcements of a sustained high-pressure ridge or tropical moisture influx from the Atlantic, which are the primary catalysts for extreme July heat. A recent update from Weather Underground highlights that LaGuardia’s readings can spike 2–4°F above inland areas due to urban heat island effects, making coastal wind patterns a critical dependency [1]. If the forecast shifts to show a blocking pattern over the Appalachians by 18 July, the value spot may emerge on the contrarian angle, as historical data suggests such setups have previously pushed NYC temperatures into the 95–99°F range, challenging the current 0% consensus.

Sources: 1

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in NYC on July 20? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Who Will Win 2026, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.