Highest temperature in NYC on July 23?

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event is the **highest temperature at LaGuardia Airport** on 23 July 2026, with settlement based on the Wunderground daily history reading for KLGA. The market is pricing a **0% YES** chance on the current structure, which makes the favourite the temperature bin that captures the day’s actual high, while every other band is effectively an underdog until the number is printed.

That said, the consensus is still centred on a **mild-to-warm afternoon rather than a heat spike**: Polymarket’s live market view has the **80–81°F** band as the frontrunner at **72%**, with **82–83°F** next at **19%**, and traders are clustering heavily around the high-70s to low-80s range because short-range models point to only modest afternoon warming before any sea-breeze or thin cloud cover develops. That leaves the main value question on the tails: if the forecast nudges cooler, the lower bins can offer contrarian upside; if the city runs hotter than expected, the upper-80s or above become the obvious longshot angle, but they need a clean, late-day warm-up to land.

For traders, the key catalysts are the same ones that move a day-of-temperature book: the latest local forecast updates, any shift in wind direction off the water, and cloud cover timing over the afternoon peak. With the market settling on the observed KLGA high rather than a forecast midpoint, the final two to four hours matter most, because a late warm surge or an early sea-breeze collapse can flip which bin is favoured.

Sources: 1

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Who Will Win 2026. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Who Will Win 2026 trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.