Highest temperature in NYC on July 3?

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event driving this market is the unprecedented heat dome currently engulfing the East Coast, which has already pushed LaGuardia Airport to record-breaking midnight temperatures of 94°F and daily highs of 104°F in early July 2026. With the crowd-implied probability for a YES outcome sitting at 0%, the consensus is aggressively contrarian, assuming the heatwave will dissipate before 3 July. However, historical parallels suggest this is a dangerous underdog play; the current heat dome is breaking records faster than the 2013 event, and the National Weather Service forecasts consecutive triple-digit temperatures for the region, making a 0% valuation on the highest temperature range appear significantly mispriced against the prevailing meteorological data[2].

Traders must watch the scheduled progression of this heat dome, as relief is only expected to reach the Northeast later in the holiday weekend, potentially leaving 3 July as the peak of the thermal event. The primary catalyst is the lack of immediate atmospheric cooling, with the heat index in Central Park already reaching 106°F and projections for 110°F, indicating that the LaGuardia station could easily breach the highest temperature range if the dome persists through Friday[2]. Recent reports confirm that LaGuardia has already tied or broken multiple daily high records, suggesting the station is primed for another extreme reading rather than a rapid cooldown, creating a distinct value spot for those betting against the 0% consensus[1][4]. The settlement window closing on 3 July at noon aligns perfectly with the forecasted peak of this heatwave, meaning the market is effectively pricing in a weather miracle that current models do not support.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in NYC on July 3? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Who Will Win 2026. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Who Will Win 2026 trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.