Highest temperature in NYC on June 22?

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Market context

On 22 June 2026, LaGuardia Airport will record its peak daily temperature in degrees Fahrenheit, a single data point that determines the outcome of a prediction market where the crowd currently assigns a 0% probability to any outcome exceeding 86°F. This near-zero stance on extreme heat sits against a backdrop of historical June normals at KLGA, where the average high is 77°F and recent days in mid-June 2026 have hovered between 79°F and 83°F, with 21 June reaching 79°F[10]. The consensus heavily favours the 72–73°F bracket at 97%, treating it as the favourite, while the 74–75°F range is the underdog at just 2%[1]. Given that 22 June 2026 is forecast to be 4°F below the normal 73°F in comparable Los Angeles markets[3], the value spot for contrarian traders may lie in the 74–75°F range if a sudden marine layer retreat or urban heat spike occurs, though the market currently prices this as highly improbable.

Traders must monitor the National Weather Service daily climatological reports for LaGuardia, specifically the maximum temperature figure released shortly after sunrise, which will confirm whether the day breaks the 73°F threshold[5]. The primary catalyst is the absence of a significant heat dome forecast for the Northeast, with AccuWeather projecting daily highs for June 2026 ranging from 75°F to 88°F, suggesting that while extremes are possible, the median remains lower[7]. Unlike the Los Angeles market where the consensus centres on a high near 70–71°F[2], New York’s higher humidity and urban density create a dependency on wind direction; a shift to southerly flow could push temperatures into the underdog bracket, but current data suggests the 72–73°F range is the statistically sound favourite[1]. No major announcements are pending, making the real-time weather feed the sole determinant for resolving this market.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in NYC on June 22? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Who Will Win 2026, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Who Will Win 2026?

Zero. Who Will Win 2026 routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Who Will Win 2026 triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.