Highest temperature in NYC on June 26?

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Market context

On 26 June 2026, LaGuardia Airport recorded a high of 71°F, falling well below the seasonal average of 84.2°F and the historical record of 101°F[6]. This outcome mirrors the broader pattern seen in early June 2026, where thunderstorms and cool fronts repeatedly capped temperatures in the low 90s across the Northeast, preventing sustained heatwaves[2]. With the crowd-implied probability for a higher range sitting at 0% YES, the consensus firmly expects no breakout above 79°F, yet the historical volatility suggests value may lurk in contrarian positions betting on a late surge, especially given that peak heat often arrives after such stormy intervals[2].

Traders should monitor the National Weather Service’s climatological updates for LaGuardia, which confirm that a cold front brought scattered thunderstorms and cooler air on the night of 25–26 June, with lingering warmth projected for Sunday[2][8]. The key catalyst is whether the anticipated surge in heat by mid-week, as forecast by the NWS, will materialise before the settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 26 June[2]. While recent data shows temperatures in the low 90s for Philadelphia and New York on 5 June, the immediate dependency is the strength of the next warm air advection, which could push readings above 79°F if the front weakens faster than expected[2]. No official announcements have yet confirmed a heatwave, but the pattern of 10–15-degree above-average spikes in recent weekends hints at potential upside value for underdog bets[2].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in NYC on June 26? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Who Will Win 2026, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Who Will Win 2026 is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Who Will Win 2026 triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.