Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 11?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 11 August 2026, Seoul's highest temperature will be recorded at Incheon International Airport Station and measured against defined Celsius ranges. The crowd currently assigns zero probability to the YES outcome, suggesting either extreme confidence in a specific temperature band or uncertainty about which range qualifies as the target. Resolution hinges on Weather Underground's Daily Observations table rather than summary figures, a distinction that occasionally produces material differences in recorded highs.

Seoul experiences peak summer heat in August, with historical daily maxima typically ranging from 28°C to 34°C during this period. The 2023 summer saw temperatures exceed 33°C on multiple August days, whilst cooler years have produced highs near 27°C. The zero probability reading suggests the market has already priced in a particular outcome—most likely that the temperature will fall within a specific range already established as the consensus expectation. Without visibility on the exact range options available, traders should note that Incheon's coastal location moderates extremes compared to central Seoul, and that any unusual weather patterns (tropical systems, high-pressure systems) could shift outcomes materially.

The settlement window closes at midday UTC on 11 August 2026, allowing only morning observations to influence final resolution. Traders should monitor meteorological forecasts from late July onwards, particularly any alerts from the Korea Meteorological Administration regarding heat waves or unusual pressure systems. The specificity of using Incheon station data rather than city-centre measurements creates potential value for those tracking microclimatic variations, though historical consistency at this location suggests the outcome will likely cluster within established August norms.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Who Will Win 2026 trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.