Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 13?

Platform comparison

Market context

The market is pricing the highest temperature at Incheon International Airport on 13 August 2026 at 0% probability for any given range, suggesting the crowd has not yet formed a consensus view or is awaiting clearer seasonal patterns. August in Seoul typically sees peak summer heat, with daily highs routinely exceeding 30°C and occasionally reaching into the mid-30s Celsius range. The settlement mechanism relies on Weather Underground's Daily Observations table rather than summary figures, a distinction that matters when intraday spikes occur—the highest recorded temperature, not the official high-low range, determines the outcome.

Seoul's August temperatures have shown considerable year-to-year variation over recent decades. The city experienced a record high of 39.6°C in August 2018, whilst cooler Augusts have seen peaks in the 28–31°C band. Incheon, located on the coast, typically runs 1–2°C cooler than central Seoul due to maritime influence, though the airport station's specific microclimate and measurement protocols can affect readings. Historical data suggests the most common August highs at Incheon fall between 29–33°C, with extremes less frequent but not unprecedented.

The key variable for traders is whether 2026 develops as an anomalously hot or moderate summer across East Asia. Climate patterns in late July and early August will signal whether tropical air masses dominate the peninsula or whether cooler maritime flows prevail. Monitoring weather forecasts from mid-July onwards, particularly any alerts from Korea Meteorological Administration regarding heat waves, will provide the strongest early indicators of where temperature ranges should cluster.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 13? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Who Will Win 2026, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Who Will Win 2026. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Who Will Win 2026 trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.