Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 18?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 18 August 2026, Seoul's Incheon International Airport weather station will record a daily high temperature. The market currently shows 0% implied probability across all temperature ranges, suggesting either extreme uncertainty amongst traders or a technical issue with crowd pricing. Resolution will depend on the Daily Observations table from Weather Underground rather than summary figures, a distinction that matters when automated systems occasionally diverge from raw station data.

Seoul's August climate is consistently hot and humid, with historical highs typically ranging from 28–33°C. The past decade shows 18 August specifically has seen temperatures between 29–32°C in most years, with occasional peaks above 33°C during heat waves. The 0% reading across all brackets is anomalous given this predictability; comparable weather markets on major cities rarely show such uniform flatness, suggesting the market may lack sufficient trader participation rather than reflecting genuine uncertainty about whether any temperature will be recorded.

Traders should monitor late-July and early-August 2026 weather patterns for East Asia, particularly any developing heat domes or tropical systems that could push temperatures above or below the seasonal norm. The Korea Meteorological Administration typically issues extended forecasts by early August. Any significant weather system—whether an early monsoon shift or a continental heat surge—would reshape the probability distribution substantially. The specificity of using Incheon Airport's station data (rather than Seoul city centre readings) also matters; airport microclimates can differ from urban zones by 1–2°C depending on wind patterns and surface conditions.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Who Will Win 2026, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Who Will Win 2026. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.