Highest temperature in Seoul on July 12?

Platform comparison

Market context

Seoul is bracing for peak summer heat as traders assess the likelihood of record-breaking temperatures on 12 July 2026, with the crowd currently assigning a 0% implied probability to the YES outcome. This near-zero pricing suggests the market expects conditions to stay well below the threshold, yet historical data paints a more volatile picture. July is South Korea’s hottest month, with average highs in Seoul ranging from 29–30°C and frequent spikes above 35°C during heatwaves [10]. The nation recently recorded its second-hottest July since 1973, and Seoul itself hit 37.7°C in early July 2026—the highest early-July temperature in 117 years of records [6][7]. Such precedents indicate that dismissing extreme heat entirely may overlook genuine climatic volatility.

The key catalyst for traders is the daily weather forecast from the Korean Meteorological Administration, which updates hourly and dictates short-term temperature trajectories. Recent forecasts for July 2026 show daily highs in Seoul ranging between 82°F and 99°F (28–37°C), with the average high at 88°F (31°C) [4]. A sudden shift in monsoon patterns or an intensifying heat dome could push temperatures beyond 38°C, creating a contrarian value spot against the 0% consensus. Traders should monitor Wunderground’s real-time data for the Incheon Intl Airport Station, the official resolution source, as deviations from the forecast could signal a mispriced underdog scenario [1].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Seoul on July 12? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Who Will Win 2026, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Who Will Win 2026 trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.