Highest temperature in Seoul on July 17?

Platform comparison

Market context

Seoul faces a mid-July heat assessment as the Incheon International Airport station records its peak temperature for 17 July 2026, with the market heavily favouring a 31°C outcome. The crowd-implied probability for any outcome other than 31°C sits at 0% YES for the current non-31°C range, reflecting near-total consensus that the monsoon-driven cloud cover and scattered showers will cap maximums just below 32°C. This tight clustering around 28–29°C as the underlying driver suggests the market views higher temperatures as statistically improbable under current East Asian monsoon conditions [1].

Historically, Seoul’s July maxima have occasionally breached 32°C during intense heatwaves, such as the record-breaking period in July 2025 when temperatures reached the highest since 1908, continuing until around 16 July [2]. However, those extremes occurred without the persistent monsoon cloud layer now present, which acts as a natural thermostat. The 99% probability assigned to 31°C positions it as the clear favourite, while the 1% chance for 32°C or higher represents the only underdog value spot, albeit with minimal liquidity.

Traders should monitor real-time updates from Wunderground for the Incheon station, as revisions to recorded temperatures are accepted only until the first datapoint for 18 July is published [1]. Any sudden shift in monsoon intensity or unexpected clearing of cloud cover could act as a catalyst, though current forecasts indicate widespread cloud and showers through mid-week [1]. With settlement ending at 12:00 UTC on 17 July 2026, the window for contrarian angles on the 32°C+ outcome remains narrow but technically open if monsoon patterns weaken unexpectedly.

Sources: 1 · 2

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Who Will Win 2026, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Who Will Win 2026. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.