Highest temperature in Seoul on June 27?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

On 27 June 2026, the Incheon International Airport Station will record its peak temperature for the day, a real-world event that determines the outcome of this prediction market. The crowd-implied probability for the "YES" outcome is currently 0%, yet consensus heavily favours 28°C at 69% and 29°C at 30%, suggesting traders are betting on a standard late-June heatwave rather than an extreme anomaly[1]. Historical data shows Seoul’s daily highs in June typically climb from 77°F to 81°F (25°C to 27°C), rarely exceeding 87°F (31°C), which frames the current 28°C valuation as a plausible, if slightly elevated, expectation[2].

The key catalyst for traders is the approaching summer monsoon pattern, which often brings sudden temperature spikes followed by cooling rains in late June. Recent records indicate South Korea endured its hottest summer on record in 2025, with Seoul hitting 35.8°C in August, hinting that atmospheric conditions may remain volatile and prone to higher-than-average readings[4][6]. While the all-time national record of 41.0°C was set in Hongcheon, not Seoul, the trend of intensifying heat suggests value could lie in contrarian positions on 29°C if monsoon delays push temperatures upward[3]. Traders should monitor the Korea Meteorological Administration’s daily forecasts for any shifts in cloud cover or wind direction that could amplify solar heating on the 27th.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Seoul on June 27? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Who Will Win 2026, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Who Will Win 2026 triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.