Highest temperature in Seoul on June 28?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 28 June 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Incheon International Airport will determine the outcome of a prediction market where the crowd currently assigns a 0% probability to any temperature exceeding the baseline. Historical climatology for late June in Seoul shows a mean daily maximum near 28°C, with daily highs typically rising from 77°F to 81°F and rarely exceeding 87°F[4]. Recent years have seen record-breaking heat, including South Korea’s second-hottest July since 1973 at 27.1°C and a new all-time national record of 41.0°C in Hongcheon[5][6]. While the consensus leans heavily toward the 27°C outcome, with Polymarket assigning it 100% probability, Lines.com shows a more contested view at 48.5% for 28°C after a sharp 14.5% surge[1][2].

Traders should monitor the Korea Meteorological Administration’s daily heat advisories and any sudden shifts in monsoon patterns, which can suppress temperatures unexpectedly. A recent report from The Korea Herald noted that June heat shattered records across the country, with Mokko hitting 28.1°C and Daegu seeing elevated averages[8]. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 28 June, so real-time Wunderground data for Incheon Airport will be the definitive source[1]. Contrarian value may exist in the 28°C range if the 24-hour surge on Lines.com reflects genuine market re-evaluation rather than noise. With the crowd-implied probability at 0% for higher temperatures, the market appears to undervalue the possibility of a heat spike, especially given the region’s recent trend toward extreme summer conditions.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Seoul on June 28? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Who Will Win 2026, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Who Will Win 2026. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Who Will Win 2026 trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.