Highest temperature in Seoul on May 22?

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Market context

Incheon Airport’s high temperature on 22 May is the event to watch, with the market pricing 0% for the top YES outcome. That leaves the favourite firmly on the lower bands, and the only real question is whether the day lands in a cool spring range or nudges into a milder afternoon spike. Late-May normals for the Seoul area point to average highs around 21–27°C, but airport readings can run a touch cooler than central Seoul because of the coastal exposure. Recent history also shows plenty of spread: local May highs often sit in the low-to-mid 20s Celsius, while warmer outliers can still reach the high 20s. On that basis, the consensus looks concentrated around moderate temperatures, with value more likely in the neighbouring ranges rather than a runaway hot-day scenario.

For traders, the key catalysts are the morning forecast updates, cloud cover, and any weak cold front or onshore wind influence off the Yellow Sea, all of which can shave a degree or two off the afternoon maximum at Incheon. The Korea Meteorological Administration short-range forecast is the main live reference, with airport-specific history from Wunderground used for settlement once finalised. If skies stay bright and winds ease, the upper bands become more plausible; if cloud or marine air lingers, the underdog cooler ranges hold the edge. Recent regional forecast messaging has generally kept Seoul conditions changeable rather than extreme, which supports a view that the market’s value sits in moderate-temperature outcomes rather than the warmest tail.

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Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.