Highest temperature in Seoul on May 26?

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Market context

The settlement hinges on the single highest temperature recorded at Incheon International Airport on 26 May 2026, measured in Celsius and resolved via Weather Underground's historical data for that calendar day. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either absent from this market or treating all temperature ranges as equally unlikely—an unusual consensus for a specific date in Seoul's late spring season.

Seoul's late May climate sits in a predictable band. Historical records show mean highs around 26–27°C, with typical daily maxima ranging from 23–30°C depending on weather patterns. Exceptional heat above 32°C occurs occasionally but remains statistically uncommon for this period; the city's May record high stands at 34.2°C, set in 2011. The absence of trading activity and zero probability across all ranges suggests the market may lack liquidity rather than reflecting genuine uncertainty about Seoul's temperature on that specific date. Comparable late-spring days at Incheon typically fall within narrow bands, making extreme outliers (sub-20°C or above 35°C) genuine underdog positions.

Traders should monitor seasonal weather forecasts released in late April and early May 2026, particularly any signals of early heat waves or anomalous cold fronts affecting the Korean peninsula. The East Asian monsoon transition and any tropical cyclone activity in the region could shift May temperatures materially. Current atmospheric patterns and climate indices (El Niño status, Pacific Decadal Oscillation) will shape the likelihood of above-average or below-average conditions closer to settlement. The settlement window closes at midday UTC on 26 May, allowing only morning data from Incheon to count.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Who Will Win 2026, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Who Will Win 2026, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Who Will Win 2026 is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Who Will Win 2026 triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.