Highest temperature in Shanghai on July 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

Shanghai’s day-high at Pudong Airport is the core event, and the market is currently pricing **0% YES**, which makes the listed outcome a deep **underdog** relative to the climate context. July is normally one of Shanghai’s hottest months, with average highs around 31-32°C and frequent rain, but the city has also seen repeated severe-heat episodes, including a 12-day stretch with temperatures at or above 37°C in late July and August 2024. [4][2]

For handicapper framing, the consensus sits with a hot but not extreme outcome: historical July patterns point to highs in the low 30s, while occasional spikes into the upper 30s are clearly on the table. July 31 itself has shown a wide range in comparable datasets, with one weather-history source listing a historical average high near 34°C and an extreme high of 39°C for that date, which is enough to keep higher temperature bands live if heat builds over the day. [13][16] That makes the **value question** less about ordinary summer heat and more about whether Shanghai gets a true late-July surge; the 0% pricing implies the crowd is treating the top-end bands as effectively unreachable, which is where a contrarian case would sit. [13]

Traders should watch the local heat advisory pattern, cloud cover, and whether the broader East China heat ridge persists through the morning and early afternoon, because Shanghai’s hottest readings typically come before any sea-breeze relief or convective showers. Recent official reporting has shown the city can sustain prolonged extremes when the regional pattern locks in, with record-breaking runs above 35-37°C during past heat waves. [2] For this market, the practical catalyst is not a scheduled announcement but the day’s evolving forecast and observed trend at Pudong Airport, since the settlement source is the station’s highest temperature on the date.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Shanghai on July 31? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Who Will Win 2026. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Who Will Win 2026 trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.