Highest temperature in Shanghai on June 30?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 30 June 2026, the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station will record its peak temperature for the day, a real-world event that determines the outcome of this prediction market. The crowd currently assigns a 32% probability to the temperature falling within the favoured range, implying the underdog (the alternative range) is the consensus pick. Historical data frames this probability as tight: June highs at Pudong typically climb from 77°F to 83°F, rarely dipping below 69°F or exceeding 92°F, with summer peaks regularly surpassing 30°C and reaching 35°C during sunny spells [1][5]. This suggests the 32% YES line may undervalue the likelihood of a hotter day, as the hot season officially begins mid-June, pushing average highs above 80°F [6].

Traders should monitor immediate weather catalysts, particularly the east-south-easterly wind flow and 84% humidity forecast for Tuesday, which could suppress peak temperatures or drive them higher depending on cloud cover [2]. The primary dependency is the solar incident energy, which is gradually decreasing through June but remains significant at 5.1–6.0 kWh, a factor that often correlates with record highs [1]. While no specific announcements are scheduled, the settlement relies entirely on Wunderground’s daily maximum, making real-time monitoring of the station’s live feed critical as the 12:00 UTC deadline approaches [2]. The value spot likely sits on the YES side if the morning remains clear, as the consensus underestimates the probability of a 30°C+ day in late June.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Who Will Win 2026, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.