Highest temperature in Shenzhen on August 18?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 18 August 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport will fall into one of several defined ranges. The crowd currently assigns zero probability to any outcome, suggesting either extreme confidence in a particular range or insufficient liquidity to establish meaningful pricing. Shenzhen's August climate is consistently hot and humid, with daily highs typically between 32–35°C, making extreme temperatures either well above or markedly below seasonal norms the key variables.

Historical August records for Shenzhen show temperatures rarely exceed 37°C at the airport station, though the city has recorded peaks near 39°C during exceptional heat events. The 0% implied probability across all ranges indicates the market lacks active traders willing to commit capital, rather than reflecting genuine certainty about the outcome. August 2026 sits within the typical monsoon season for southern China, when tropical systems and high-pressure systems compete for dominance. Seasonal precedent suggests the most likely outcome clusters around 33–35°C, where the vast majority of August days historically settle.

Traders monitoring this market should track tropical cyclone activity in the western Pacific during early-to-mid August 2026, as storm systems can suppress temperatures through cloud cover and rainfall. Conversely, periods of high pressure and clear skies typically drive readings toward the upper end of the seasonal range. The resolution methodology—using Weather Underground's Daily Observations table rather than the Day High & Low summary—requires attention to data quality and station-specific recording practices, as discrepancies between sources occasionally occur. Early liquidity entry at current odds may offer value if confidence in specific temperature bands justifies position-taking against the inactive market.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Who Will Win 2026. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.