Highest temperature in Shenzhen on August 20?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 20 August 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport will determine the settlement range for this market. The crowd currently assigns zero probability to the implied outcome, suggesting either extreme confidence in a particular temperature band or insufficient trading activity to establish consensus pricing. Resolution hinges on the Daily Observations table from Weather Underground rather than summary figures, a distinction that occasionally produces material differences in recorded extremes.

Shenzhen's August climate is remarkably consistent. Historical data from the past decade shows daily highs clustering between 32–35°C during mid-August, with readings above 36°C occurring in roughly 15–20% of years and temperatures below 31°C in fewer than 5% of cases. The 0% probability assigned to this market suggests traders have already anchored on a specific range, likely the 32–34°C band that captures the modal outcome. This consensus reflects August's position in Shenzhen's hottest season, after the peak summer monsoon but before autumn cooling begins.

Traders should monitor tropical cyclone activity in the Western Pacific during early-to-mid August 2026, as storm systems can suppress temperatures by 2–4°C through cloud cover and precipitation. The China Meteorological Administration issues seasonal outlooks in July that occasionally flag anomalous patterns. Any El Niño or La Niña conditions developing through 2026 could shift baseline temperatures marginally. The settlement window closes at midday UTC on 20 August, requiring resolution within hours of the airport's final observation, leaving minimal room for data corrections or disputes over measurement methodology.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Shenzhen on August 20? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Who Will Win 2026 trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.