Highest temperature in Shenzhen on July 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

Shenzhen’s airport high for 31 July is a straightforward **summer heat** contest: the market is pricing a **0% YES** outcome, so the crowd is effectively calling the upside a long shot. In that framing, the favourite is any range covering the low-30s Celsius, because July norms in Shenzhen sit around **31°C** for the average daily high, with long-run July maxima commonly in the **32–34°C** band. [1][15][18]

That makes the current consensus look conservative rather than extreme. Historical July data show Shenzhen regularly touches **32–34°C** late in the month, and one reference source lists a **record high of 36.4°C** for the city, which keeps the upper ranges live even if they are not the base case. [1][15] The value spot, if any, is on the contrarian side of the board: the market is treating a hot reading as nearly impossible, yet the climatology says a warm afternoon remains the more natural outcome than an unusually cool one. [1][18]

The main catalyst is the day’s actual weather evolution at **Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station**, because settlement uses the highest temperature recorded there on the day, not a citywide average. [11][16] For a trader, the key dependencies are any strong rain bands, thunderstorms, or cloud cover that cap the afternoon peak; absent those, July heat and humidity can still push the day into the established high-temperature ranges. [15][18] With the window ending at **12:00 UTC**, early-morning conditions matter less than the afternoon heating cycle that usually decides whether the favourite lands in the low, mid, or high 30s.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Shenzhen on July 31? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Who Will Win 2026 trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.