Highest temperature in Shenzhen on June 11?

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Market context

On 11 June 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport will fall into one of several defined ranges. The market currently shows 0% implied probability across all outcomes, suggesting either incomplete pricing or a settlement mechanism awaiting activation. Shenzhen's subtropical climate produces consistent summer heat; June sits firmly in the pre-monsoon season when daily highs typically range between 28°C and 34°C, with occasional spikes above 35°C during heat waves.

Historical records from Shenzhen Bao'an show June temperatures cluster around 31–33°C as modal outcomes, with extremes reaching 37–38°C during particularly intense high-pressure systems. The 0% crowd probability across all ranges is unusual and likely reflects either the market's early stage or a technical issue with outcome weighting. Traders should recognise that any temperature between 25°C and 40°C carries genuine historical precedent; the real variance lies in whether June 2026 experiences typical seasonal conditions or an anomalous heat event.

The key variable is the atmospheric pattern prevailing in early June 2026. Subtropical ridge positioning, monsoon onset timing, and any tropical systems approaching southern China will determine whether temperatures settle in the comfortable 30–32°C band or spike into the 35°C-plus range. Weather forecasting beyond two weeks carries substantial uncertainty, meaning current market pricing—if genuinely at zero across all brackets—likely undervalues the most probable mid-range outcomes. Traders with access to seasonal climate forecasts or June 2026 weather models will have an informational edge over the current flat market state.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Who Will Win 2026, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Who Will Win 2026, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Who Will Win 2026 is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Who Will Win 2026 triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.